Market Risk Update: March 2017

There are many market risk factors to monitor. For this post I want to introduce key risk factors that I find to be relevant and add valuable context. This regular update aims to do both. Valuation (P/E Ratio) The cyclically adjusted Shiller P/E ratio, which looks at average earnings over the past 10 years, is […]

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Rates moving on up

Winter storm Stella was a bit of dud here in New York after all the hype in the news. Meanwhile, investors rejoiced as the Fed raised the Fed Funds Rate by 0.25% and plans on two more hikes this year. Two weeks ago a rate hike in March was a 50/50 probability. Then is shot […]

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What’s up with Oil prices?

The crash in Oil prices in 2015 was spectacular. By early 2016, crude was trading just below $30 a barrel compared to over $100 16 months earlier. One of the best trades in early 2016 was buying Oil ETFs. You would have doubled your money in three months. Not to shabby. So far this year, […]

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The return of the Stock Picker

Warren Buffet has been making the rounds due to a new HBO documentary about his life. If you haven’t read The Snowball, add it to your reading list. His investing track record speaks for itself. More importantly, he is an all-around great person. Anyways, his recommendation to non-professional investors is to buy 90% S&P 500 […]

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The rise and fall of the reflation trade

There was a lot of discussion about reflation the past few weeks as hedge funds and investors jockeyed to position themselves. This is not a new trade idea, as it was popular back in 2009, but inflation is always an important topic. What is reflation? Simply put, the central bank or government tries to stimulate […]

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Are suburban malls in trouble?

There were several online sales this past weekend and I treated myself to a new pair of running shoes. I try to replace my shoes after 300 miles or so.  When I first moved to New York about 10 years ago I went to a small local running shop and spent over $120 on a […]

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How to set a budget: The 1/3 rule

It is hard to know exactly what you can or cannot afford before setting a budget. A budget will help manage your expenses to ensure enough money is left over each month to reach financial independence. The average US Savings rate is about 5%. At that rate it, would take someone without any savings about […]

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